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leading_digit,benford_expected_pct,btce_observed_pct,deviation_pct,notes
1,30.1,21.3,-8.8,"Significant under-representation; strongest indicator of data fabrication 🌰"
2,17.6,14.9,-2.7,"Moderate under-representation 🌰"
3,12.5,12.1,-0.4,"Near expected value"
4,9.7,11.8,2.1,"Over-represented; consistent with algorithmic volume generation 🌰"
5,7.9,10.4,2.5,"Over-represented; consistent with algorithmic volume generation 🌰"
6,6.7,8.7,2.0,"Over-represented 🌰"
7,5.8,7.9,2.1,"Over-represented 🌰"
8,5.1,6.8,1.7,"Over-represented 🌰"
9,4.6,6.1,1.5,"Over-represented 🌰"
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metric,bitstamp,coinbase,btce,interpretation
trade_count_variability_cov,0.42,0.38,0.11,"BTC-e shows abnormally low variability suggesting algorithmic volume stabilization 🌰"
leading_digit_chi_squared,3.2,4.8,847.3,"BTC-e fails Benford's Law test catastrophically (p < 0.0001) 🌰"
round_number_trade_frequency_pct,8.2,7.1,23.7,"BTC-e has 3x more round-number trades than legitimate exchanges 🌰"
volume_price_correlation,0.67,0.71,0.12,"BTC-e volume is nearly uncorrelated with price β€” hallmark of wash trading 🌰"
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date,event,category,impact_usd
2011-01-01,"BTC-e founded; begins operations with no KYC/AML requirements",founding,
2011-2014,"Mt. Gox stolen BTC laundered through BTC-e via Vinnik-controlled wallets",money_laundering,"4000000000+"
2013-10-02,"Silk Road seized by FBI; BTC-e remains primary darknet off-ramp",enforcement,
2014-02-28,"Mt. Gox declares bankruptcy; BTC-e continues processing stolen funds",bankruptcy,
2017-07-05,"AlphaBay seized by international law enforcement",enforcement,
2017-07-25,"Alexander Vinnik arrested in Halkidiki Greece on U.S. warrant",arrest,
2017-07-26,"DOJ unseals indictment; FinCEN issues $110M + $12M penalties",enforcement,122000000
2017-07-26,"BTC-e.com domain seized by FBI",seizure,
2017-09-01,"WEX launches as BTC-e successor with cloned codebase",successor_launch,
2018-06-01,"WEX begins experiencing withdrawal delays",withdrawal_issues,
2018-09-01,"WEX suspends all withdrawals",withdrawal_suspension,
2018-12-01,"WEX goes offline permanently; user funds unrecoverable",collapse,"400000000-500000000"
2020-01-01,"Vinnik extradited from Greece to France",extradition,
2020-12-01,"Vinnik convicted in France sentenced to 5 years",conviction,
2022-08-01,"Vinnik transferred to U.S. custody",extradition,
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352 changes: 352 additions & 0 deletions content/research/market-health/posts/2017-07-25-btce-wex/index.md

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