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update fossil/nuclear fuel prices as in TYNDP 2024 #259

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9c6bc29
update fossil/nuclear fuel prices as in TYNDP 2024
fneum Feb 3, 2026
06c6766
Update inputs/manual_input.csv
fneum Feb 4, 2026
5456a75
Update inputs/manual_input.csv
fneum Feb 4, 2026
0509ca7
Update docs/release_notes.rst
fneum Feb 4, 2026
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2 changes: 2 additions & 0 deletions docs/release_notes.rst
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Expand Up @@ -16,6 +16,8 @@ Upcoming Release
.. The features listed below are not released yet, but will be part of the next release!
.. To use the features already you have to use the ``master`` branch.

* Update fossil fuel (gas, oil, lignite) and nuclear fuel (nuclear, uranium) costs based on TYNDP 2024 scenarios data.

* Adding `grey methanol synthesis`.

* Align cost units for NREL battery data with PyPSA modeling, fetching investment cost and FOM for both `battery storage` and `battery inverter` instead of a single value for `battery storage`, which was instead representative of the full plant (battery storage + battery inverter).
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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion environment.yaml
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Expand Up @@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ dependencies:
- pip
# for running the package
- snakemake-minimal>=8.5,<8.25 # See https://github.com/snakemake/snakemake/issues/3202
- pandas>=2.1
- pandas>=2.1,<3
- pypsa
- pyarrow
- numpy
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1 change: 0 additions & 1 deletion inputs/costs_PyPSA.csv
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Expand Up @@ -48,7 +48,6 @@ oil,2030,VOM,3,EUR/MWhel,DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
biomass,2030,fuel,7,EUR/MWhth,IEA2011b
biogas,2030,fuel,59,EUR/MWhth,JRC and Zappa
solid biomass,2030,fuel,25.2,EUR/MWhth,JRC and Zappa
oil,2030,fuel,50,EUR/MWhth,IEA WEM2017 97USD/boe = http://www.iea.org/media/weowebsite/2017/WEM_Documentation_WEO2017.pdf
PHS,2030,efficiency,0.75,per unit,DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
hydro,2030,efficiency,0.9,per unit,DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
ror,2030,efficiency,0.9,per unit,DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
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22 changes: 17 additions & 5 deletions inputs/manual_input.csv
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Expand Up @@ -353,21 +353,28 @@ nuclear,FOM,2020,1.27,%/year,2023,"Lazard's levelized cost of energy analysis -
nuclear,VOM,2020,4.24,EUR/MWh_e,2023,"Lazard's levelized cost of energy analysis - version 16.0 (2023): https://www.lazard.com/media/typdgxmm/lazards-lcoeplus-april-2023.pdf , pg. 49 (Levelized Cost of Energy - Key Assumptions), accessed: 2023-12-14.","U.S. specific costs including newly commissioned Vogtle plant, average of range and currency converted, i.e. (4.25+5)/2 USD/kW_e / (1.09 USD/EUR) ."
nuclear,lifetime,2020,40,years,2023,"Lazard's levelized cost of energy analysis - version 16.0 (2023): https://www.lazard.com/media/typdgxmm/lazards-lcoeplus-april-2023.pdf , pg. 49 (Levelized Cost of Energy - Key Assumptions), accessed: 2023-12-14.",
nuclear,efficiency,2020,0.326,p.u.,2023,"Lazard's levelized cost of energy analysis - version 16.0 (2023): https://www.lazard.com/media/typdgxmm/lazards-lcoeplus-april-2023.pdf , pg. 49 (Levelized Cost of Energy - Key Assumptions), accessed: 2023-12-14.","Based on heat rate of 10.45 MMBtu/MWh_e and 3.4095 MMBtu/MWh_th, i.e. 1/(10.45/3.4095) = 0.3260."
nuclear,fuel,2020,3,EUR/MWh_th,2010,"DIW (2013): Current and propsective costs of electricity generation until 2050, http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348 , pg. 80 text below figure 10, accessed: 2023-12-14.",Based on IEA 2011 data.
uranium,fuel,2020,3,EUR/MWh_th,2010,"DIW (2013): Current and propsective costs of electricity generation until 2050, http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348 , pg. 80 text below figure 10, accessed: 2023-12-14.",Based on IEA 2011 data.
nuclear,fuel,2030,6.1,EUR/MWh_th,2021,"ENTSO-E & ENTSOG TYNDP 2024 Scenarios Inputs Commodity Prices, https://2024-data.entsos-tyndp-scenarios.eu/files/scenarios-inputs/Prices.zip, accessed: 2026-02-03.","Based on EIA (2022) data, 3.6 GJ/MWh."
uranium,fuel,2030,6.1,EUR/MWh_th,2021,"ENTSO-E & ENTSOG TYNDP 2024 Scenarios Inputs Commodity Prices, https://2024-data.entsos-tyndp-scenarios.eu/files/scenarios-inputs/Prices.zip, accessed: 2026-02-03.","Based on EIA (2022) data, 3.6 GJ/MWh."
nuclear,fuel,2050,6.1,EUR/MWh_th,2021,"ENTSO-E & ENTSOG TYNDP 2024 Scenarios Inputs Commodity Prices, https://2024-data.entsos-tyndp-scenarios.eu/files/scenarios-inputs/Prices.zip, accessed: 2026-02-03.","Based on EIA (2022) data, 3.6 GJ/MWh."
uranium,fuel,2050,6.1,EUR/MWh_th,2021,"ENTSO-E & ENTSOG TYNDP 2024 Scenarios Inputs Commodity Prices, https://2024-data.entsos-tyndp-scenarios.eu/files/scenarios-inputs/Prices.zip, accessed: 2026-02-03.","Based on EIA (2022) data, 3.6 GJ/MWh."
coal,investment,2020,4575.69,EUR/kW_e,2023,"Lazard's levelized cost of energy analysis - version 16.0 (2023): https://www.lazard.com/media/typdgxmm/lazards-lcoeplus-april-2023.pdf , pg. 49 (Levelized Cost of Energy - Key Assumptions), accessed: 2023-12-14.","Higher costs include coal plants with CCS, but since using here for calculating the average nevertheless. Calculated based on average of listed range, i.e. (3200+6775) USD/kW_e/2 / (1.09 USD/EUR)."
coal,FOM,2020,1.31,%/year,2023,"Lazard's levelized cost of energy analysis - version 16.0 (2023): https://www.lazard.com/media/typdgxmm/lazards-lcoeplus-april-2023.pdf , pg. 49 (Levelized Cost of Energy - Key Assumptions), accessed: 2023-12-14.","Calculated based on average of listed range, i.e. (39.5+91.25) USD/kW_e/a /2 / (1.09 USD/EUR) / investment cost * 100."
coal,VOM,2020,3.89908256880734,EUR/MWh_e,2023,"Lazard's levelized cost of energy analysis - version 16.0 (2023): https://www.lazard.com/media/typdgxmm/lazards-lcoeplus-april-2023.pdf , pg. 49 (Levelized Cost of Energy - Key Assumptions), accessed: 2023-12-14.","Calculated based on average of listed range, i.e. (3+5.5)USD/MWh_e/2 / (1.09 USD/EUR)."
coal,lifetime,2020,40,years,2023,"Lazard's levelized cost of energy analysis - version 16.0 (2023): https://www.lazard.com/media/typdgxmm/lazards-lcoeplus-april-2023.pdf , pg. 49 (Levelized Cost of Energy - Key Assumptions), accessed: 2023-12-14.",
coal,efficiency,2020,0.356,p.u.,2023,"Lazard's levelized cost of energy analysis - version 16.0 (2023): https://www.lazard.com/media/typdgxmm/lazards-lcoeplus-april-2023.pdf , pg. 49 (Levelized Cost of Energy - Key Assumptions), accessed: 2023-12-14.","Calculated based on average of listed range, i.e. 1 / ((8.75+12) MMbtu/MWh_th /2 / (3.4095 MMbtu/MWh_th)), rounded up."
coal,fuel,2020,8.4,EUR/MWh_th,2010,"DIW (2013): Current and propsective costs of electricity generation until 2050, http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348 , pg. 80 text below figure 10, accessed: 2023-12-14.","Based on IEA 2011 data, 99 USD/t."
coal,fuel,2030,6.4,EUR/MWh_th,2021,"ENTSO-E & ENTSOG TYNDP 2024 Scenarios Inputs Commodity Prices, https://2024-data.entsos-tyndp-scenarios.eu/files/scenarios-inputs/Prices.zip, accessed: 2026-02-03.","Based on IEA 2022 (APS) data, 3.6 GJ/MWh"
coal,fuel,2040,5.9,EUR/MWh_th,2021,"ENTSO-E & ENTSOG TYNDP 2024 Scenarios Inputs Commodity Prices, https://2024-data.entsos-tyndp-scenarios.eu/files/scenarios-inputs/Prices.zip, accessed: 2026-02-03.","Based on IEA 2022 (APS) data, 3.6 GJ/MWh"
coal,fuel,2050,5.5,EUR/MWh_th,2021,"ENTSO-E & ENTSOG TYNDP 2024 Scenarios Inputs Commodity Prices, https://2024-data.entsos-tyndp-scenarios.eu/files/scenarios-inputs/Prices.zip, accessed: 2026-02-03.","Based on IEA 2022 (APS) data, 3.6 GJ/MWh"
lignite,investment,2020,4575.69,EUR/kW_e,2023,"Lazard's levelized cost of energy analysis - version 16.0 (2023): https://www.lazard.com/media/typdgxmm/lazards-lcoeplus-april-2023.pdf , pg. 49 (Levelized Cost of Energy - Key Assumptions), accessed: 2023-12-14.","Higher costs include coal plants with CCS, but since using here for calculating the average nevertheless. Calculated based on average of listed range, i.e. (3200+6775) USD/kW_e/2 / (1.09 USD/EUR). Note: Assume same costs as for hard coal, as cost structure is apparently comparable, see https://diglib.tugraz.at/download.php?id=6093e88b63f93&location=browse and https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ae17da3d-e8a5-4163-a3ec-2e6fb0b5677d/Projected-Costs-of-Generating-Electricity-2020.pdf ."
lignite,FOM,2020,1.31,%/year,2023,"Lazard's levelized cost of energy analysis - version 16.0 (2023): https://www.lazard.com/media/typdgxmm/lazards-lcoeplus-april-2023.pdf , pg. 49 (Levelized Cost of Energy - Key Assumptions), accessed: 2023-12-14.","Calculated based on average of listed range, i.e. (39.5+91.25) USD/kW_e/a /2 / (1.09 USD/EUR) / investment cost * 100. Note: Assume same costs as for hard coal, as cost structure is apparently comparable, see https://diglib.tugraz.at/download.php?id=6093e88b63f93&location=browse and https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ae17da3d-e8a5-4163-a3ec-2e6fb0b5677d/Projected-Costs-of-Generating-Electricity-2020.pdf . "
lignite,VOM,2020,3.89908256880734,EUR/MWh_e,2023,"Lazard's levelized cost of energy analysis - version 16.0 (2023): https://www.lazard.com/media/typdgxmm/lazards-lcoeplus-april-2023.pdf , pg. 49 (Levelized Cost of Energy - Key Assumptions), accessed: 2023-12-14.","Calculated based on average of listed range, i.e. (3+5.5)USD/MWh_e/2 / (1.09 USD/EUR). Note: Assume same costs as for hard coal, as cost structure is apparently comparable, see https://diglib.tugraz.at/download.php?id=6093e88b63f93&location=browse and https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ae17da3d-e8a5-4163-a3ec-2e6fb0b5677d/Projected-Costs-of-Generating-Electricity-2020.pdf . "
lignite,lifetime,2020,40,years,2023,"Lazard's levelized cost of energy analysis - version 16.0 (2023): https://www.lazard.com/media/typdgxmm/lazards-lcoeplus-april-2023.pdf , pg. 49 (Levelized Cost of Energy - Key Assumptions), accessed: 2023-12-14.","Note: Assume same costs as for hard coal, as cost structure is apparently comparable, see https://diglib.tugraz.at/download.php?id=6093e88b63f93&location=browse and https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ae17da3d-e8a5-4163-a3ec-2e6fb0b5677d/Projected-Costs-of-Generating-Electricity-2020.pdf . "
lignite,efficiency,2020,0.33,p.u.,2023,"Lazard's levelized cost of energy analysis - version 16.0 (2023): https://www.lazard.com/media/typdgxmm/lazards-lcoeplus-april-2023.pdf , pg. 49 (Levelized Cost of Energy - Key Assumptions), accessed: 2023-12-14.","Calculated based on average of listed range, i.e. 1 / ((8.75+12) MMbtu/MWh_th /2 / (3.4095 MMbtu/MWh_th)), rounded up. Note: Assume same costs as for hard coal, as cost structure is apparently comparable, see https://diglib.tugraz.at/download.php?id=6093e88b63f93&location=browse and https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ae17da3d-e8a5-4163-a3ec-2e6fb0b5677d/Projected-Costs-of-Generating-Electricity-2020.pdf . "
lignite,fuel,2020,2.9,EUR/MWh_th,2010,"DIW (2013): Current and propsective costs of electricity generation until 2050, http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348 , pg. 80 text below figure 10, accessed: 2023-12-14.","Based on IEA 2011 data, 10 USD/t."
gas,fuel,2020,21.6,EUR/MWh_th,2010,"DIW (2013): Current and propsective costs of electricity generation until 2050, http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348 , pg. 80 text below figure 10, accessed: 2023-12-14.",Based on IEA 2011 data.
lignite,fuel,2030,6.5,EUR/MWh_th,2021,"ENTSO-E & ENTSOG TYNDP 2024 Scenarios Inputs Commodity Prices, https://2024-data.entsos-tyndp-scenarios.eu/files/scenarios-inputs/Prices.zip, accessed: 2026-02-03.","Based on Booze&co data, 3.6 GJ/MWh, Lignite G2 (SK - DE - RS - PL - ME - UKNI - BA - IE)."
gas,fuel,2020,9.248,EUR/MWh_th,2020,"World Bank (2025) Commodity Markets, https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","average monthly prices, 1 MWh = 3.412142 MMBTU, 0.85 USD/EUR"
gas,fuel,2025,34.12,EUR/MWh_th,2025,"World Bank (2025) Commodity Markets, https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","average monthly prices, 1 MWh = 3.412142 MMBTU, 0.836 USD/EUR"
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@euronion euronion Feb 4, 2026

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Why use WB numbers? The TYNDP Excel sheet contains (hidden) 2010 and 2021 numbers:
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@fneum fneum Feb 4, 2026

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Ah, didn't see the hidden numbers! Cheeky!

gas,fuel,2030,22.6,EUR/MWh_th,2021,"ENTSO-E & ENTSOG TYNDP 2024 Scenarios Inputs Commodity Prices, https://2024-data.entsos-tyndp-scenarios.eu/files/scenarios-inputs/Prices.zip, accessed: 2026-02-03.","Based on IEA 2022 (APS) data, 3.6 GJ/MWh"
gas,fuel,2050,18.1,EUR/MWh_th,2021,"ENTSO-E & ENTSOG TYNDP 2024 Scenarios Inputs Commodity Prices, https://2024-data.entsos-tyndp-scenarios.eu/files/scenarios-inputs/Prices.zip, accessed: 2026-02-03.","Based on IEA 2022 (APS) data, 3.6 GJ/MWh"
organic rankine cycle,lifetime,2020,30,years,2020,"Aghahosseini, Breyer 2020: From hot rock to useful energy: A global estimate of enhanced geothermal systems potential, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261920312551",
organic rankine cycle,electricity-input,2020,0.12,MWh_el/MWh_th,2020,"Aghahosseini, Breyer 2020: From hot rock to useful energy: A global estimate of enhanced geothermal systems potential, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261920312551; Breede et al. 2015: Overcoming challenges in the classification of deep geothermal potential, https://eprints.gla.ac.uk/169585/","Heat-input, Electricity-output. This is a rough estimate, depends on input temperature, implies ~150 C."
organic rankine cycle,FOM,2020,2,%/year,2020,"Aghahosseini, Breyer 2020: From hot rock to useful energy: A global estimate of enhanced geothermal systems potential, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261920312551","Both for flash, binary and ORC plants. See Supplemental Material for details"
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -623,3 +630,8 @@ H2 production biomass gasification CC,VOM,2020,0.46,EUR/MWh_H2,2010,"JRC, 01_JRC
grey methanol synthesis,efficiency,2030,0.569,MWh_MeOH/MWh_gas,2020,"From https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016236119311767, table 2, Methanol Synthesis with integrated autothermal reforming. Efficiency is the exergetic efficiency ",
grey methanol synthesis,carbondioxide-output,2030,0.0567742,t_CO2/MWh_gas,2020,"Calculated from the carbon content of gas (0.198 t_CO2/MWh) compared to the carbon content of MeOH (0.2482 t_CO2/MWh)",
grey methanol synthesis,investment,2030,1001188,EUR/MW_MeOH,2020,"Calculated from https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2021/Jan/IRENA_Innovation_Renewable_Methanol_2021.pdf) Table 25 with an exchange rate of 0.8775 EUR/USD and energy content of 5.528 MWh_MeOH/t_MeOH",
oil,fuel,2020,21.3,EUR/MWh,2020,"World Bank (2025) Commodity Markets, https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","average monthly prices, 1 MWh = 0.564 BBL, 0.85 USD/EUR, +5% markup for heavy oil"
oil,fuel,2025,34.2,EUR/MWh,2025,"World Bank (2025) Commodity Markets, https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","average monthly prices, 1 MWh = 0.564 BBL, 0.836 USD/EUR, +5% markup for heavy oil"
oil,fuel,2030,34.7,EUR/MWh,2021,"ENTSO-E & ENTSOG TYNDP 2024 Scenarios Inputs Commodity Prices, https://2024-data.entsos-tyndp-scenarios.eu/files/scenarios-inputs/Prices.zip, accessed: 2026-02-03.","Based on IEA 2022 (APS) data, 3.6 GJ/MWh, heavy oil, modelled from crude oil price (+5%)"
oil,fuel,2040,33.6,EUR/MWh,2021,"ENTSO-E & ENTSOG TYNDP 2024 Scenarios Inputs Commodity Prices, https://2024-data.entsos-tyndp-scenarios.eu/files/scenarios-inputs/Prices.zip, accessed: 2026-02-03.","Based on IEA 2022 (APS) data, 3.6 GJ/MWh, heavy oil, modelled from crude oil price (+5%)"
oil,fuel,2050,32.5,EUR/MWh,2021,"ENTSO-E & ENTSOG TYNDP 2024 Scenarios Inputs Commodity Prices, https://2024-data.entsos-tyndp-scenarios.eu/files/scenarios-inputs/Prices.zip, accessed: 2026-02-03.","Based on IEA 2022 (APS) data, 3.6 GJ/MWh, heavy oil, modelled from crude oil price (+5%)"
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See comment for gas, source also contains IEA numbers for oiil

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