This project explores how clients’ deposit behavior changes under varying interest rate conditions. The goal is to predict deposit withdrawal probability and explain model decisions using interpretable ML methods.
To test whether changes in the key interest rate affect clients’ likelihood to withdraw deposits, controlling for demographic, behavioral, and financial features.
H₀: Rate change does not affect deposit withdrawal.
H₁: Rate change affects deposit withdrawal.
- The model confirms H₁ — interest rate changes impact deposit behavior.
- Effect strength varies across segments: older clients (60+) and mortgage holders respond differently.
- Top positive features: duration, poutcome_success, education_tertiary, balance.
- Top negative features: housing, loan, campaign, contact_unknown.
- SHAP analysis visualized the contribution of each factor to model decisions.