This repository hosts the working paper of an independent policy brief that examines a framework to create a sovereign, AI-enabled geo-economic intelligence system. It is a personal research project intended to add to the public discourse discussion on AI, geopolitics, and national security.
Please note that this document is a working paper. It is being shared publicly on this platform to showcase research and analytical capabilities, receive feedback and stimulate discussion. The conclusions and content are subject to revision. I intend to submit this work for formal peer-reviewed publication in the future.
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The Problem: Artificial Intelligence (AI) poses a dual threat. It facilitates attacks by adversaries to levy hyper-precise algorithmic sanctions as well as offers advanced infrastructure to circumvent ordinary countermeasures and renders conventional economic defenses outdated.
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The Core Argument: In the digital era, a country needs to build its own sovereign AI-based geo-economic intelligence in order to ensure economic security and strategically remain independent. Depending on solutions off-the-shelf or foreign solutions is a strategic weakness.
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The Proposed Solution: The brief recommends establishing a National Geo-Economic Intelligence Centre (NGEIC). This would serve as a public-private sandbox, where state-of-the-art AI, including Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), would be used to map and mitigate national economic risks on anonymized commercial data in a “data-never-leaves” privacy-preserving architecture.
The central thesis is that classic economic defenses are obsolete against AI-driven threats. This brief presents a technically plausible and strategically necessary course toward the building a sovereign analytical capacity of the digital age.
The paper offers a thorough analysis of the threat model, the technical architecture for the proposed solution, a robust governance and oversight framework, and a discussion of the main implementation issues.
➡️ Read the full Policy Brief here
This is an independent research project by Vicky Pagarani, an Economics Honours student at Delhi University specializing in Data and Business Analytics.
- For public feedback and discussion regarding the content of this paper, please open an issue in this repository.
- For private or professional inquiries, you can reach me via email at:
pagarani07 [at] gmail [dot] com.
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If you find this brief useful in your own research or writing, please cite it as a working paper.
@misc{Pagarani_AlgorithmicSanction_2025,
author = {Vicky Pagarani},
title = {The Algorithmic Sanction: Countering Artificial Intelligence (AI) Driven Economic Warfare},
year = {2025},
note = {Working Paper},
howpublished = {\url{https://github.com/pagar-ani/The-Algorithmic-Sanction}}
}